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Kamis, 10 September 2009

Seven things to watch tonight

President Barack Obama steps down from Marine One on the South Lawn of the White AP – President Barack Obama steps down from Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, …

Viewers who tune into President Barack Obama’s health-care address tonight will see all the usual trappings of a big-time speech – members of Congress applauding or sitting quietly, depending on their partisan viewpoint, and guests in the gallery carefully selected to match key message points.

But the things to watch for at 8 p.m. tonight are far more subtle, though in many ways, more important to whether Obama succeeds in wrestling the health-care debate back onto his own terms.

“It’s a pivotal moment for health care,” said former Clinton White House Chief of staff Mack McLarty. “It’s a dramatic moment, almost like a heavyweight fight.”

Obama has a lot to do in one speech – convince Americans with insurance it’s a good deal for them, and convince Americans without it that he’s got a plan to cover them — all without busting the budget. The danger for the White House will be muddling its own message.

“He has to talk not to the left or the right - but to Middle America,” said former Clinton White House aide Chris Lehane. “To do this, he may think of a good story or a powerful metaphor that breaks through.”

So the first thing to watch for tonight is:

Can he keep it simple?

Health care reform is insanely complicated, as opponents love to point out in lavishly detailed flow charts and spaghetti-shaped graphics detailing the various proposals.

The issue is extremely important to the American people, but the policy details turn them off. If the president veers off into Washington wonk-speak – as he is sometimes inclined to do — he’ll drive viewers away. After all, the season premiere of “So You Think You Can Dance” is airing at the same time tonight over on FOX. Rupert Murdoch will be in ratings heaven if the president dwells on any of the following eyes-glaze-over concepts tonight: “trigger option,” “insurance cooperative,” or worst of all, “reconciliation process.”

“Remote controls, whether controlled by the male or the female of the family, still work,” said McLarty. “And you’ve got a lot of channels out there today. At the same time, I don’t think the American people want a dumbed-down speech.”

So the key for tonight: simple, without being dumb.

Who is his bad guy?

Obama’s opponents have dominated the rhetorical battles by invoking enemies in the debate – fictional “death panel” members, illegal immigrants, and well, Obama. But Obama has only gingerly targeted enemies of his own, and often in broad strokes.

Some of the president’s political supporters say he needs to single out a bad guy to serve as his foil in this debate, and do it soon. Obama previewed some bad-guy bait on Monday, when he elicited boos from a union audience as he talked about “CEOs and bankers getting multimillion-dollar bonuses” during a Labor Day speech.

Obama’s rhetoric earlier this week singled out “all these folks” who have been telling “lies” in the health care debate. “I’ve got a question for all those folks,’ Obama declared. “What are you going to do? What's your answer?”

Of course, “these folks” is a classic Washington straw man – a nameless enemy that’s easily knocked down in a speech. But the president also targeted the insurance companies, laying out a vision of what could come if Washington doesn’t act: “And we know what that future looks like: insurance companies raking in the profits while discriminating against people because of preexisting conditions; denying or dropping coverage when you get sick.”

Where’s that old campaign magic?

There’s a reason the White House keeps sending Obama out to talk up healthcare – they think it works. But Obama needs to recapture the enthusiasm and grandeur that once prompted MSNBC’s Chris Matthews to exclaim that he felt a thrill going up his leg when he heard Obama speak. There have been very few such thrills from Obama in recent months, and he might need a few to get his health care reform back on track.

The problem, though, is the venue. The format of an address to Congress is fairly limited: it’s formal, respectful, and measured instead of free-flowing, fiery, and grandiose. Even the bits of stagecraft are all well worn at this point. The president will, as all recent presidents have, seat a few regular Americans with the First Lady whose life stories will help sell his proposal.

Watch to see if the president can break free of the conventions and connect with Americans again the way he did last year during the campaign.

Does he win the spin?

The networks will be looking for instant reaction from members of Congress, which can shape perceptions of whether the speech was a winner or a dud – and set the storyline for the morning papers on whether Obama satisfied warring constituencies in his own party. If liberals feel he wasn’t sufficiently supportive of the public health insurance option, they’re sure to gripe. Likewise, if Democratic moderates say Obama isn’t listening to their concerns that health-care could bust the budget, they won’t be happy.

The White House also will try to shape the message online, too.

In the minutes after the speech ends this evening, White House Communications Director Anita Dunn will go on whitehouse.gov to talk with Americans in a live video chat and respond to questions received through Facebook and Twitter.

Keep an eye on that effort – the White House knows it needs to go viral, since one of the most damaging tools used by opponents of reform have been simple chain emails that are angry, detailed, and often totally misleading. Obama needs to dominate the Internet again the way he did during the campaign – and tonight’s the night he needs to start.

Public option or no public option?

Many Democrats believe it’s time for Obama to make a stand – is he for the public insurance option or not? The White House is sending signals that his message might still be mixed – he’ll give a full-throated defense of the need for government-run insurance, but will make clear he won’t reject a bill that doesn’t include a public plan. There’s a danger that won’t truly satisfy either side – and could mean more weeks of hashing out the question that has dominated the debate: what is the government’s role in health care?

He’s got to try to please everybody without looking like he’s trying to please everybody, said Democratic campaign veteran Donna Brazile: “Whatever the President says tonight, there can be no wording that looks as if he is waffling.”

And there are other details to be filled in, too: “Is he going to put any deadlines out there,” asks Republican strategist John Feehery. “Will he announce any mechanisms to get to an agreement?”

But the trick is to find a way to talk specifics without alienating his political base, agitating his political enemies, or using such technical language that he fails to keep it simple.

It’s an incredibly difficult needle to thread, but Obama will try to do it tonight.

What’s the bite of the night?

White House speechwriters know that one sound bite from the president can dominate the next 24 to 48 hours on television news. So they craft a few lines as TV bait, and they need the president to hit them in full voice. See if you can spot the pre-packaged sound bite as the president speaks.

Of course, even a great bite can’t guarantee a legislative win. Remember this one? “This health care system of ours is badly broken and it is time to fix it.” That was Bill Clinton addressing Congress in a speech very much like tonight’s back on September 22, 1993.

Clinton hit that pre-packaged sound bite perfectly. But his health-care bill was still all but dead by November.

Can he get Republicans to cheer?

The White House previewed a little of Obama’s Republican applause line bait this morning, saying he’ll suggest that medical malpractice reform should be included in the broader debate about health reform. Republicans frequently blast what they call “junk lawsuits,” so it’ll be hard for the GOP to resist.

But up until now, Republicans have been nearly uniformly opposed to his health care initiative – and several have said that they’re hoping that an Obama failure here will blunt the momentum of his presidency.

So watch for Obama to bait them into applauding for him with applause lines that are so reasonable and unobjectionable that Republicans will have no choice but to stand and applaud early on in the speech. It’s all part of the inside the room mind-game piece of the evening.

Adding to the complexity: Republicans may want to be seen applauding Obama on non-controversial lines – that helps them make the case that they don’t object to the president, but to his extreme proposals. They know the audience at home is watching to see if they really are the “Party of No,” as Democrats like to say.

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